Jarret Brachman Testifies Before Subcommittee
On Wednesday, March 2, 2011 the Committee on Homeland Security’s Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence held a hearing entitled “Terrorist Threat to the U.S. Homeland – Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).”
Dr. Jarret Brachman’s [full text of testimony]
Rumor on the boards the past couple weeks has it that Abu Musab al-Suri has been released. IMHO, if this is true, it would be a disaster for the United States. Here’s why:
Suri literally wrote the book on decentralized violent extremism. He understood Maoist encirclement strategy and was able to apply it to helping al-Qaida transcend itself from a group to a network to a global ideology. Suri believed in the persuasive power of education. He was a pioneer in the use of new media technology.
Anwar al-Awlaki and Samir Khan would not have been able to accomplish what they did without Suri’s body of work. Awlaki was never the arch nemesis that we painted him to be. Yes, he was compelling for the global media to hype. Sure, he resonated with the emotionally bruised Western fencesitter. But he was painting by number on a worksheet that had been already drafted by Suri. Samir Khan just helped to translate that image into digital pixels.
I have been warning quietly for some time now that the release of Suri could breathe life into the global al-Qaida support movement in a way for which we are not prepared. The mere symbolism of his freedom will galvanize the online community. His videos are already being re-uploaded. His audios, re-posted. His books and articles are going to find their way back to the top of jihadi must-read lists.
One must naturally ask the question: why would the Syrian authorities release him? Jihadi posters are greeting the news with caution. In the mainstream news sites, particularly Sooryoon.net, some commenters seem to believe that this was a result of the Syrians being pressured by Zawahiri’s last video to release Suri in exchange for the American, Warren Weinstein. Another commented that this was a strategy move by the Syrian regime to thumb the Americans in the eye. There might be something to that if Suri is indeed released.
Abu Musab al-Suri could indeed help to lead a disjointed, embattled and internally fractured al-Qaida into a new era by reconceptualizing what al-Qaida means. For now, let’s hope he remains rotting away in a prison cell. But stay tuned.
If this reporting is accurate, Al-Qaida’s Sheikh Abu Yahya al-Libi has just helped to justify why I’ve been referring to him as al-Qaida’s most dangerous operator and the next Bin Laden.
In the words of Bill Roggio:
One of al Qaeda’s top leaders has reached out to the most powerful Taliban commanders along the Afghan-Pakistani border to create a new alliance to battle the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan.
The new alliance, which is called the Shura-e-Murakeba, consists of four major Taliban groups that operate in Pakistan’s tribal areas. The four groups that make up the alliance are the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, which is led by Hakeemullah Mehsud and his deputy, Waliur Rehman Mehsud; Hafiz Gul Bahadar’s group; Mullah Nazir’s group; and the Haqqani Network. Each leader has appointed a deputy to represent them on the council.
The members of the Shura-e-Murakeba agreed to cease attacks against Pakistani security forces, refocus efforts against the US, and end kidnappings and other criminal activities in the tribal areas.
So to all those who have criticized my characterization of Abu Yahya’s importance to Al-Qaida or the global jihadist movement as over-hyping him, I ask you: could Zawahiri have pulled this off? Could anyone else within al-Qaida’s senior ranks?
Wasn’t it Bin Laden’s innate charisma, strategic vision and ideological leadership the traits we point to as making him unique from other global jihadist figures? And aren’t those traits not only present in, but being redefined by, Abu Yahya al-Libi in Bin Ladens’ absence?
This most recent video (released yesterday) by Abu Yahya al-Libi felt different to me. He may have just been tired or have a cold, but he’s not quite himself – weary, exhausted. The fire wasn’t there. Maybe he’s just beat down.
Oh, that red. I mean. What were they thinking?
After a lull in issuing regular communiques, Al-Qaida’s Senior Leadership has released two doozies over the past week. The first product came in the form of a video list of demands by Al-Qaida’s emir, Ayman al-Zawahiri, for the release of a 70-year-old US aid worker that al-Qaida took hostage approximately four months ago in Pakistan. One of the demands made by Zawahiri was a prisoner swap of notables like the Blind Sheikh, Khalid Sheikh Muhammad and, importantly, Abu Musab al-Suri.
For those who might not remember, Suri was the brainchild of al-Qaida’s decentralized warfare strategy and a favorite author of the late Anwar al-Awlaki and Samir Khan. A quick scan of the Inspire Magazines shows what a virtual ode they had become to Suri’s legacy of writing and theorizing. The fact that Zawahiri would push for Suri’s release gives further credence to the argument being made by CRONUS that Zawahiri fully understands the need for reconceptualizing al-Qaida’s relevance to its global movement in the face of declining core capacity. If he was ever released, Abu Musab al-Suri, who the jihadi online movement believes is now in Syrian custody, would help blaze a trail for a post-Al-Qaida Al-Qaida in a way that no active jihadists today could do.
The second video release from Al-Qaida this week was issued by the group’s top sheikh, Abu Yahya al-Libi. In his statement entitled, “Libya: What Is Wanted for Her,” Abu Yahya presses his Libyan countrymen to avoid squandering the removal of Qaddaffi by working with the United States and its allies. The video’s release confirms Abu Yahya’s continued importance to Al-Qaida and the relevance that Libya retains to Al-Qaida’s North African strategy and is, therefore, lends further support to the argument that the United States must remain actively engaged in Libya to ensure that al-Qaida does not make inroads in that country.
According to him, Al-Qaida is using Mexican drug cartels to infiltrate Hezbollah and Hamas operatives over the border so that they can launch a future race war against the US with the goal of taking over and/or destroying Americans’ ability to smoke cigars and drink PBR on the beach? And all of this is endorsed by President Obama?
Geez, news to me! And I thought I knew something about al-Qaida!
* if you like this, I’ve got something juicy in the pipeline along the same lines.
If you’re into my version of Kremlinological analysis, then you’ll be curious to know that in June 2010, it was a white pen:
and PPS, he’s lost weight in the past year. The persistent threat of drone strikes arent all that conducive to maintaining a well-balanced diet and lifestyle I guess…
If you’ll recall, one week ago Ayman al-Zawahiri issued a video “And the Americans’ Defeats Continue.” In that video, al-Zawahiri touched on several points, including the importance of Algeria. Here’s what he said:
O lions of Algeria, you have set the greatest examples in sacrifice, jihad, and struggle. Why do you keep silent on the corrupt oppressors? They fight your Shariah, communicate with Israel, and steal the bread of your children to spread corruption and turn the Algeria of jihad and encampment into a service agency that protects the interests of the United States and France in North Africa and the Mediterranean Basin… Those who believe fight in the cause of Allah and those who reject Faith fight in the cause of Evil: so fight ye against the friends, of Satan: feeble indeed is the cunning of Satan,” [Al-Nisa, 4: 75-76].
You will notice I color-coded it. My color selections were for no particular reason.
But they matter when comparing clips of Zawahiri’s recent comments on Algeria with that of Abu Yahya al-Libi’s today. Shaykh al-Libi has been quiet since he appeared in the Vanguards of Khorasan mag in September of this year. According to Abu Yahya’s most recent video:
Those who believe, fight in the cause of Allah and of those who reject faith fight in the cause of evil [partial verse, Al-Nisa, 4:76]… O Muslim people of Algeria: You were, just yesterday, before the criminals of France, an example of the power of determination, bearing hardships, remaining patient with the circumstances, and waging a vicious war…You did not lose courage or weaken, yield or give in. Rather, the processions of your sacrifices followed one after the other… So go forth with your sons, and renew your revolt against a decaying and staggering regime.
So, beyond the obvious coordination in the timing of release, you can see the similarity in construction and thematic focus through my high-tech use of colors. AQ loves to do these little one-two punches in order to really highlight a talking point. Bin Laden and Zawahiri did it around President Obama’s Middle East tour, Abu Yahya and Attiyatallah were doing it a lot during the Arab Spring. It’s a tried and true method and we’re seeing it again here.
I’ll go through the video one more time to tease out some more substantive points from it but this was, to me, the most interesting thing to discuss.
