I’m going to add a new section to this blog that I’ll eventually formalize but for now, it’ll be ad hoc. I call it, “Brachman’s Take.” This is whenever I have a raw idea that I haven’t worked out but I know there’s something there. I might not be the first to think of it, but it’s new to me…
Brachman’s Take: Al-Qaida has progressively lowered their threshold for what constitutes “success” all the way down to failure. I guess you could call this “spin,” but I think there’s something more here.
Take Umar Faruq Abdulmutallab’s failed attack on Christmas Day. Here’s what AQAP had to say in the first paragraph of their claim of responsibility:
With the grace of Allah alone the heroic martyrdom bomber brother Omar Al-Farooq managed to carry out a special operation on an American Airplane, from the Dutch city Amsterdam to the American city Detroit, and this happened during the Christmas holiday, Friday December 25, 2009. He managed to penetrate all devices and modern advanced technology and security checkpoints in international airports bravely without fear of death, relying on Allah and defying the great myth of American and international intelligence, and exposing how fragile they are, bringing their nose to the ground, and making them regret all that they spent on security technology.
It had nothing to do with him failing. It was all about success. They just changed the metrics. Blowing up the device no longer matters. The fact is, he penetrated their security and technology. He showed that it was possible. He was a pioneer in shattering assumptions, according to the statement, which is nearly as good for AQ, it seems, as destroying the plane. He could’ve, and we know it. Point made.
I think it’s a smart strategy. But also disingenuous. I mean, without acknowledging that, yes, he failed to accomplish the mission, but here’s a bunch of other things he showed, it comes off as spin, as propaganda.
It’s not the first time an AQ organization has claimed credit for failure. AQAP did the same thing with Umar Faruq’s seeming partner in crime, Abdullah al-Assiri (aka, the butt-bomber). Recall, here’s what AQAP said in the aftermath of al-Assiri’s failed attempt to assasinate the Saudi prince:
…in the process of intelligence and security breach, the first of its kind in the Arabian Peninsula, the assistant minister of interior for security affairs, criminal taghout Mohammed bin Nayyaf Al-Saud, who fought against Allah and His Messenger and the believers, in his evilness (was attacked), the Mujahid hero was able to be on the list of martyrdom-seeker (85th, His name: Abu al-Khayr) Abdul Khayr Asiri by the Grace and Power of Allah entered the the evil palace between (despite the presence of) guards and detonated a charge about which they do not, and will not know the way it explodes (i.e. functions), especially after having passed all the security and search checkpoints in Nijran Airport, and the carrier (Abdul Khayr) was transported to the specifically requested airplane.
So, overall take here is that AQ, well at least AQAP, has learned that quickly claiming responsibility, even for failure, is key to demonstrating continued relevance. Indeed, it is finding the success in failure that AQ has grown fairly skilled at. It’s also a great way to ensure that the United States comes knocking at your doorstep with a round of hellfire missiles.
[...] Brachman’s Take: “Lowering the Threshold for Success” « JARRET BRACHMAN. [...]
But this was not without success, if you consider the terrorizing of the West that Al-Nigeri has achieved.
The point is to show to the U.S. that they must cease their evil actions, and that they won’t be able to kill their way out of trouble,
because attacks will not relent.
Cross reference with Awlaki’s statement from October, about Yemen being the next great front in the global jihad.
http://s88179113.onlinehome.us/2010-01-03/awlaki_archive-surpise_of_the_season/could_yemen_be_the_next_surprise_of_the_season.html
If success means you get (more) Infidel boots onto the Arabian Peninsula, then mission accomplished.
And if you equate victory with death, then you welcome the Hellfire missiles.
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This post was mentioned on Twitter by abuaardvark: Brachman: AQ lowers the threhold for “success” http://bit.ly/5e0ioo failure becomes success — and US media gleefully helps them do it…
“This is whenever I have a raw idea that I haven’t worked out but I know there’s something there.” Perhaps you should call it Brachman’s Half-Bake instead?
[...] weiteren bietet es sich auch an, diese beiden, ebenfalls von Farrall verlinkten Artikel zu lesen. 1.Jarret Brachman und 2. [...]
I totally agree with you. Your “take” immediately reminded me of an article that I read a few years ago (Rachel L. Einwohner, “Motivational Framing and Efficacy Maintenance: Animal Rights Activists’ Use of Four Fortifying Strategies”, The Sociological Quarterly, vol. 43, no. 4, pp. 509-526). The article does not deal with how animal rights activists try to get new supporters but how they maintain the support of the activists who have already joined them, particularly when times are tough and successes are few and far between. Einwohner discusses four strategies used by activists to achieve this: 1) seeing the positive in all their activities, even if they’ve really failed; 2) thinking cumulatively (i.e. splitting up their main goals into smaller ones that are more easily achieved so that every small achievement can be viewed as a step toward the ultimate goal); 3) celebrating victories; and 4) claiming credit for positive outcomes. This way, Einwohner writes, the animal rights activists in her research keep their spirits and those of their supporters up even in times when there is very little to celebrate.
When I read this article a few years ago, I wrote all kinds of parallels with today’s jihadi movement in the margin, for example the jihadis’ claiming credit for the 2006 congressional elections, which were viewed as a blow to the Bush administration’s policies in the Muslim world. Apparently, you’ve noticed the same phenomenon. Of course, one could argue that Umar Faruq Abdulmutallab was indeed successful in getting past security, boarding the plane and at least trying to detonate the bomb. The scare it has sent throughout the West can also be seen as an achievement on the way to al-Qa’ida’s ultimate goal. All these things can easily be seen as reasons to celebrate and as positive aspects of an operation that actually failed. Einwohner would probably conclude that these are all strategies to maintain support at a time when things are not looking up for al-Qa’ida. I’d say she’d have a good point.
Thanks Jarret for the very inspiring post. I think terrorists in general know how to use failure as a success and it remind me this other example (http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article4478.htm)…
Thanks also Joas for the article !!! I like when ideas are coming up and get discussed between you guys. I think this is very useful and motivating for us – the young – next generation – of academic working on terrorism studies.